SCENARIOS BY RUSSIAN EXPERTS ON ENDING THE WAR IN UKRAINE (2022)
(published in 2022) The study is effectively a systematic model of Russia’s signals to the West, disguised as an analysis of three scenarios (“restoration”, “revolution”…
Publications
Research
System-level and applied studies based on the TESPA framework.
A cumulative architecture of analytical knowledge
The TESPA research layer brings together system-level studies, applied geopolitical analysis, methodological papers and archived research. Its purpose is not only to present individual publications, but to show how analytical knowledge develops over time — from observation of events to signal interpretation, from signals to patterns, and from patterns to broader assessments of international architecture.
- Event
- Signal
- Pattern
- Scenario
- Architecture
Three key works
New to TESPA research? Begin with these three works — they show the system at a glance before you explore the full archive below.
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01
Core TESPA architecture paper
TESPA: A System-Level Architecture for Organising Analytical Knowledge in International Studies
Introduces TESPA as a system-level architecture for organising, integrating and developing analytical knowledge, extending SPA’s signal-pattern logic into a structured knowledge system rather than a single technique.
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02
Applied SPA case study
Russia and System Disruption: A Signal-Pattern Analysis of Transformational Strategic Behaviour
Analyses Russia as an actor of system disruption, examining how its behaviour can be read not only as reactive or defensive, but as transformational behaviour aimed at altering the rules, costs and logic of the international system.
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03
Core SPA methodology
Signal-Pattern Analysis (SPA v2.1): A Functional Methodology for Strategic Behavior Analysis Under Uncertainty
Presents SPA as a functional methodology for analysing strategic behaviour under uncertainty, defining how individual signals are identified, classified and connected to broader behavioural patterns and hypothesis layers.
Four types of material
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01
System-level studies
Papers examining the architecture of international competition, the transformation of global order and the changing roles of key actors.
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02
Applied case studies
Analytical works on specific cases — Ukraine, Russia, China, Iran, the Middle East, NATO, BRICS, sanctions regimes and regional security.
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03
Methodological materials
Texts that explain or develop the TESPA / SPA approach: signal analysis, pattern recognition, scenario interpretation and architectural assessment.
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04
Archived analytical work
Earlier research showing the development of analytical thinking over time, forming the basis of the current framework.
Main research directions
TESPA research is organised around system-level directions rather than isolated regions or dates.
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01
Architecture of international competition
The contemporary system as a structured field of roles, rules, nodes and mechanisms — the contestation of hierarchy within a preserved unipolar order.
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02
Ukraine and the war as a systemic node
Russia’s war as a systemic test of whether the forcible change of borders can be legitimised or blocked.
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Russia and revisionist strategy
Russia’s use of war, destabilisation, sanctions adaptation and crisis bargaining to preserve or restore great-power status.
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04
US–China competition
The model of managed US–PRC competition: technology, containment, selective cooperation, Taiwan, the Global South and normative contestation.
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05
Iran, Hormuz and regional security
Iran’s nuclear capacity, missiles, proxies, sanctions adaptation and the Strait of Hormuz as bargaining assets in a shifting regional architecture.
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Western security adaptation
The transformation of the EU, NATO and Western security mechanisms under the pressure of Russia’s war against Ukraine.
Research archive
The full corpus, read as a record of analytical development. Filter by direction and format.
Direction
Format
THE NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION OF 2 JULY 2021
(published in 2021) This study presents a comprehensive model of the Russian Federation’s strategic thinking, as set out in the 2021 National Security Strategy, where the…
US-RUSSIA RELATIONS – FAULT LINES AND POINTS OF CONTACT (2021)
The key logic running through the entire study is that Russia views the current period (up to 2024) as a transitional phase for reassessing its status within the internat…
AFGHANISTAN AND RUSSIA – A NEW REALITY (2021)
(published in 2021) The study demonstrates the multi-level asymmetry of Russia’s roles in the Afghan case, where its strategy is based not on actual control, but on compe…
REAL AND POTENTIAL THREATS TO UKRAINE, AS SET OUT IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION’S SECURITY STRATEGY (2021)
The study demonstrates that the 2021 Russian Federation Security Strategy is not a collection of individual threats, but a comprehensive architecture of systemic influenc…
THE ‘RUSSIAN DONBAS’ DOCTRINE — KEY NARRATIVES ESTABLISHED BY RUSSIA (2021)
The ‘Russian Donbas’ doctrine forms a coherent ideological and political construct aimed at legitimising the Russian Federation’s claims to Ukrainian territories through…
VLADIMIR PUTIN’S ARTICLE ‘ON THE HISTORICAL UNITY OF RUSSIANS AND UKRAINIANS’ (12 JULY 2021)
The study clearly demonstrates that V. Putin’s article is not a historical or ideological piece, but a negotiating framework for the West, constructed according to the lo…
RUSSIA’S PROPOSALS FOR DISCUSSIONS WITH THE EU ON THE TERMS FOR SHAPING A NEW WORLD ORDER (2020)
The study demonstrates Russia’s comprehensive strategy, aimed not so much at integration into the existing international order as at its transformation to suit Russia’s o…
COMPARISON OF THE ‘TRUMP DOCTRINE’ AND THE ‘GERASIMOV DOCTRINE’ — CONCLUSIONS FOR UKRAINE 2019
The study presents a comprehensive model of the Russian Federation’s strategic thinking, as set out in the 2021 National Security Strategy, where the key objective is to…
THE FORMATION OF RUSSIA’S ROLE AS A ‘LEADING BALANCING POWER’ IN THE ARCHITECTURE OF THE NEW WORLD ORDER. 2019
(published in 2019) This study reflects the attempt by Russian strategic thinking (as of 2019) to shape a new role for the Russian Federation in the world following the c…
‘GERASIMOV’S DOCTRINE’ AND RUSSIA’S INTERNATIONAL PEACEKEEPING ACTIVITIES 2019
The study describes the logic of Russia’s ‘Gerasimov Doctrine’ as a systemic model of conflict management, in which the key feature is the combination of non-military and…
Russia’s proposal as a precondition for negotiations – ‘A moratorium on mutual accusations’ (2019)
This scenario – “Russia’s proposal as a condition for negotiations: A moratorium on mutual accusations” – is currently playing out in relation to Iran’s behaviour. Russia…
How TESPA research works
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01
Architecture over isolated events
Research asks how events change roles, rules, mechanisms and nodes within the international system.
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Signals before conclusions
The signal, its type, function and possible pattern are identified before strategic conclusions are drawn.
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03
Scenarios instead of prediction
Possible trajectories and their supporting signals are identified, not categorical forecasts.
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04
Methodological transparency
Facts, signals, functions, patterns, hypotheses and conclusions are kept distinct to reduce overinterpretation.
Research cooperation
TESPA research is an evolving analytical layer connecting publications, methodological development, applied case studies and archived materials into one system for interpreting contemporary international competition.