Cumulative memory structure
The Archive functions not as a repository of outdated materials, but as a cumulative memory structure documenting the evolution of analytical logic, methodological adaptation, and conceptual development.
Evolutionary memory
Archive & Evolution
The evolutionary memory of TESPA: from early geopolitical research to a system-level methodology of signals, patterns, scenarios and architectural analysis.
The Archive preserves the historical, conceptual, and evolutionary development of the TESPA ecosystem across its analytical transformation.
Two archives, two purposes
TESPA maintains two distinct archival layers. This page is the historical one; the evidence layer is kept separately, so the Archive is never read as "only old materials".
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Historical
Archive & Evolution
The historical and evolutionary memory of TESPA — how ideas, early models, hypotheses and the SPA/TESPA methodology developed over time. This is the layer you are reading now.
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Evidence
Case Archive
A separate evidence layer, where a signal becomes a documented case and an analytical product. Maintained as a distinct, forthcoming section — not part of the historical archive.
A history of analytical development
The Archive should be read not as a list of old publications, but as a history of analytical development.
Some early materials may not use the current TESPA or SPA terminology. They may not yet contain a clear distinction between signal type, function, pattern, scenario or architectural assessment. However, these materials show how the analytical instruments that are now part of TESPA gradually emerged.
The Archive therefore has two functions:
- first, to preserve previous research as independent analytical material
- second, to show the evolution of methodology, concepts, hypotheses and research directions
Types of preserved materials
The TESPA Archive preserves several types of materials:
- early geopolitical studies
- texts on changes in world order
- analysis of Russian strategies and doctrines
- studies of Russia’s war against Ukraine
- materials on China, BRICS and strategic competition
- regional studies on the Middle East, Iran, Afghanistan, Syria and other cases
- texts on sanctions, security strategies, NATO, negotiation formats and scenarios
- materials showing the transition towards SPA / TESPA logic
- publications, books and extended analytical texts
From observation to ecosystem
The Archive reflects the gradual transformation of fragmented analytical observations into a structured ecosystem of strategic interpretation and methodological synthesis.
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01
Pre-TESPA Research
Foundational geopolitical and systemic studies.
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02
Early Signal Analysis
Organisation of evolving signal configurations.
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Transitional Frameworks
From fragmented observation toward structured logic.
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04
SPA Formation
Emergence of the structured analytical framework.
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05
TESPA Ecosystem Development
Unified research, methodology, and synthesis.
Formative analytical environments
Pre-TESPA materials document the early analytical environments, conceptual experiments, and formative stages that contributed to the emergence of SPA and the broader TESPA framework.
Hypotheses, models, and frameworks
The Archive preserves the evolution of analytical hypotheses, interpretive mechanisms, system models, and strategic frameworks developed through cumulative monitoring and synthesis.
Integrated analytical lineage
Within TESPA, previous analytical forms remain integrated into the broader ecosystem, preserving continuity between earlier conceptual stages and current framework development.
Phases of analytical development
Documented transitions from early geopolitical research toward a stabilised research architecture within the TESPA ecosystem.
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Early Research Phase
Foundational geopolitical and systemic studies.
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Signal Monitoring Development
Organisation of evolving signal configurations.
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SPA Formation
Emergence of structured analytical framework logic.
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Strategic Synthesis Expansion
Cumulative integration of monitoring and interpretation.
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TESPA Ecosystem Emergence
Unified analytical architecture across research and methodology.
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Research Architecture Stabilisation
Ongoing refinement within the current Research environment.
Research architecture
Browse full Research
Evolving geopolitical research architecture
Publications are organised by evolution logic — not by region or year alone — showing how system-level analysis matured into the TESPA framework.
Foundational Systems
Pre-SPA conceptual formation
Foundation layer — early logic and framework emergence across world-order and doctrine studies.
- GLOBAL LEVEL, THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION AND UKRAINE, CHANGES IN THE WORLD ORDER (2022)
- RUSSIA’S PROPOSALS FOR DISCUSSIONS WITH THE EU ON THE TERMS FOR SHAPING A NEW WORLD ORDER (2020)
- COMPARISON OF THE ‘TRUMP DOCTRINE’ AND THE ‘GERASIMOV DOCTRINE’ — CONCLUSIONS FOR UKRAINE 2019
- THE FORMATION OF RUSSIA’S ROLE AS A ‘LEADING BALANCING POWER’ IN THE ARCHITECTURE OF THE NEW WORLD ORDER. 2019
- ‘GERASIMOV’S DOCTRINE’ AND RUSSIA’S INTERNATIONAL PEACEKEEPING ACTIVITIES 2019
- Russia’s proposal as a precondition for negotiations – ‘A moratorium on mutual accusations’ (2019)
- G20 – THE ARMS RACE, SECURITY ISSUES (2019)
Strategic System Transformation
System-conflict analysis
Configurations, narratives, and strategic interaction across security strategies and Ukraine-focused studies.
- KEY POINTS FROM VLADIMIR PUTIN’S INTERVIEW ON 09.02.24
- GLOBAL EVENTS AFFECTING THE WAR IN UKRAINE 2024
- THE UKRAINIAN ISSUE AT THE UN GENERAL ASSEMBLY IN 2024. AN OVERVIEW OF KEY TRENDS
- KEY POINTS FROM V. PUTIN’S SPEECH AT VALDAI (2023)
- REVIEW OF THE NATO SUMMIT (2023)
- SCENARIOS BY RUSSIAN EXPERTS ON ENDING THE WAR IN UKRAINE (2022)
- THE NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION OF 2 JULY 2021
- US-RUSSIA RELATIONS – FAULT LINES AND POINTS OF CONTACT (2021)
- REAL AND POTENTIAL THREATS TO UKRAINE, AS SET OUT IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION’S SECURITY STRATEGY (2021)
- VLADIMIR PUTIN’S ARTICLE ‘ON THE HISTORICAL UNITY OF RUSSIANS AND UKRAINIANS’ (12 JULY 2021)
Strategic Interaction Environments
Contestation and hierarchy
Superpower competition, BRICS dynamics, and China-system adaptation — close to mature TESPA logic.
Regional Strategic Architectures
Architecture-level regional analysis
Middle East, Iran, Syria, Afghanistan — regional balancing and negotiation systems.
- THE MIDDLE EAST CRISIS. ISRAEL-HAMAS 2023
- THE ‘RUSSIA–AFRICA’ SUMMIT 2023. SELECT COUNTRIES
- THE ‘RUSSIA–AFRICA’ SUMMIT 2023
- AFGHANISTAN AND RUSSIA – A NEW REALITY (2021)
- THE ‘RUSSIAN DONBAS’ DOCTRINE — KEY NARRATIVES ESTABLISHED BY RUSSIA (2021)
- DONALD TRUMP’S DOCTRINE AND ‘WHAT IT ENTAILS’ (2019)
- THE IMPACT OF ‘TRUMP’S STRATEGY’ ON REGIONS (2019)
- PROPOSALS BY RUSSIA AND IRAN REGARDING THE PERSIAN GULF, 2019
- RUSSIA – IRAN. WHO IS USING WHOM 2019
- THE SIMILARITIES BETWEEN THE CONFLICTS IN SYRIA AND UKRAINE AS A HYBRID INSTRUMENT OF RUSSIAN FOREIGN POLICY 2019
- THE WITHDRAWAL FROM SYRIA AS PART OF THE US’S NEW STRATEGY. WHAT UKRAINE CAN EXPECT 2019
TESPA / SPA Evolution
Current framework layer
SPA papers, TESPA overview, methodology, and system-level interpretation within the active Research architecture.
SPA papers, TESPA overview, methodology, and system-level interpretation publications are integrated within the current Research architecture. View Research →
Extended analytical volumes
Electronic editions of selected books documenting strategic competition, China systems, and scenario logic in the war against Ukraine.
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The Factor of China in the Russian-Ukrainian War
View on UKR Line -
Contradictions in Russian-Chinese Relations: A Ukrainian Perspective
Co-authored View on UKR Line -
"Strategy of Competition" and Ukraine. The West and China in Search of World Balance
View on UKR Line -
Basic Algorithms of Scenarios and Narratives of the Russian Federation in the War Against Ukraine
View on UKR Line
Connected to the whole ecosystem
The Archive is not separated from current TESPA. It supports all main parts of the ecosystem:
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Research
by preserving previous publications and cases
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SPA Methodology
by documenting the evolution of work with signals
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Analytical Products
through accumulated examples of scenarios, patterns and strategic assessments
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TESPA School
through materials that can be used for training and methodological explanation
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Publications
by documenting the development of ideas, concepts and frameworks
Methodological memory
The Archive matters because TESPA is not a one-time concept, but a framework that develops through the accumulation of knowledge.
It makes it possible to:
- see the origins of key ideas
- check how hypotheses changed
- trace the evolution of patterns
- compare early and current interpretations
- preserve methodological memory
- show that TESPA has a research history and did not emerge as a ready-made term without analytical foundations
Evolutionary memory
The Archive represents the evolutionary memory of TESPA, preserving the intellectual continuity and cumulative analytical development underlying the ecosystem.