Publications

Analyzing Negotiations Before They Start: The TESPA Framework for Pre-Negotiation Field Control

Introduces the concept of pre-negotiation field control — the capacity of actors to shape the resources, platforms, narratives, mandate, leverage and enforcement mechanisms from which future negotiations begin. Presents TESPA as a framework for detecting negotiation-field formation before formal talks become visible.

• pre-negotiation field control
• negotiation analysis
• TESPA methodology
• mandate contamination
• verification over trust
• framework re-binding
• Ukraine–Russia track

DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.21191122

Signal-Pattern Analysis (SPA v2.1): A Functional Methodology for Strategic Behavior Analysis Under Uncertainty

Presents SPA as a functional methodology for analysing strategic behaviour under uncertainty, defining how individual signals are identified, classified and connected to broader behavioural patterns and hypothesis layers.

• signal identification
• functional classification
• strategic behaviour
• uncertainty
• hypothesis-layered analysis

Signal-Pattern Analysis (SPA): A Method for Analysing Strategic Behaviour in International Relations

Introduces SPA as a method for analysing strategic behaviour in international relations, explaining how actions, statements, decisions and interactions can be read as signals that reveal behavioural patterns over time.

• strategic behaviour
• international relations
• signal-pattern analysis
• behavioural patterns
• analytical method

Signal-Pattern Analysis (SPA): A Framework for Analysing Strategic Behaviour in International Relations

Develops SPA from a method into a broader analytical framework, focusing on how repeated signals form patterns, how patterns support hypotheses, and how strategic behaviour can be assessed across actors and contexts.

• SPA framework
• strategic interaction
• pattern formation
• signalling
• international relations theory

Signal-Pattern Analysis (SPA): A Framework for Analysing Strategic Behaviour and Configurations in International Relations

Presents SPA as a methodological and theoretical framework, expanding from individual signals and behavioural patterns to broader configurations of actors, interaction regimes and systemic positioning.

• strategic configurations
• SPA research programme
• theoretical framework
• system-level interaction
• strategic behaviour

TESPA: A System-Level Architecture for Organising Analytical Knowledge in International Studies

Introduces TESPA as a system-level architecture for organising, integrating and developing analytical knowledge, extending SPA’s signal-pattern logic into a structured knowledge system rather than a single technique.

• system-level architecture
• analytical knowledge
• methodology layer
• application layer
• evolution layer
• linkage principle

TESPA: A System-Level Analytical Framework for Strategic Behaviour in International Relations (Overview)

A concise overview presenting TESPA as a system-level analytical framework, summarising how it organises signals, patterns, hypotheses and analytical outputs into a coherent research architecture.

• TESPA overview
• strategic behaviour
• system-level framework
• international relations
• SPA–TESPA linkage

Latent Divergence: Russia and China Between Tactical Alignment and Structural Incompatibility

Analyses Russia–China relations through tactical alignment and structural incompatibility, using SPA to distinguish visible cooperation signals from deeper patterns of divergence that may shape the partnership’s long-term limits.

• Russia–China relations
• tactical alignment
• structural incompatibility
• latent divergence
• strategic partnership limits

Differentiated U.S. Strategy Toward Autocracies: Managing Competition within a Contested Unipolar System

Examines how the United States differentiates its strategy toward autocratic actors, applying SPA to show that behaviour varies by actor type, strategic function, threat profile and systemic role.

• U.S. strategy
• autocracies
• differentiated strategy
• contested unipolarity
• managed competition

China and Normative Competition: A Signal-Pattern Analysis of Strategic Behaviour

Applies SPA to China’s role in normative competition, analysing how institutional, diplomatic and narrative signals are used to contest, reshape or selectively adapt international norms.

• China
• normative competition
• strategic behaviour
• international norms
• institutional signalling

Russia and System Disruption: A Signal-Pattern Analysis of Transformational Strategic Behaviour

Analyses Russia as an actor of system disruption, examining how its behaviour can be read not only as reactive or defensive, but as transformational behaviour aimed at altering the rules, costs and logic of the international system.

• Russia
• system disruption
• transformational strategic behaviour
• rule contestation
• international order

US Strategy as a System-Structuring Configuration

Analyses U.S. strategy as a system-structuring configuration, showing how it organises the strategic environment through alliances, sanctions, deterrence, institutional design and selective engagement.

• U.S. strategy
• system-structuring configuration
• alliances
• deterrence
• sanctions
• strategic order

US–China Relations: Managed Competition as a Systemic Regime

Examines U.S.–China relations as a regime of managed competition, applying SPA to analyse how competition, constraint, communication, interdependence and signalling coexist within a structured but contested relationship.

• U.S.–China relations
• managed competition
• systemic regime
• interdependence
• escalation control

US–Iran Relations: Coercion-to-Agreement as an Adaptive Coercive Mechanism

Analyses U.S.–Iran relations through the coercion-to-agreement model, examining how pressure, sanctions, military signalling, negotiation sequencing and conditional concessions operate as an adaptive coercive mechanism.

• U.S.–Iran relations
• coercion-to-agreement
• adaptive coercive mechanism
• sanctions
• negotiation sequencing
• strategic pressure

US–Russia Relations: From Coercion to Controlled Competition — A Transitional Strategic Model

Analyses U.S.–Russia relations as a transitional model moving between coercion and controlled competition, examining how sanctions, deterrence, diplomatic signalling and selective engagement coexist within a changing relationship.

• U.S.–Russia relations
• coercion
• controlled competition
• transitional strategic model
• deterrence
• escalation management

Available through Zenodo. The revised version was not accepted on SSRN for platform risk-policy reasons related to a sensitive topic — a platform limitation, not a quality issue.