KEY POINTS FROM VLADIMIR PUTIN’S INTERVIEW ON 09.02.24
V. Putin’s interview (09.02.2024) was used as a signal to the West and the Global South, selected and broadcast via Russian state media Basic framework: the thesis that t…
Publications
Research
System-level and applied studies based on the TESPA framework.
A cumulative architecture of analytical knowledge
The TESPA research layer brings together system-level studies, applied geopolitical analysis, methodological papers and archived research. Its purpose is not only to present individual publications, but to show how analytical knowledge develops over time — from observation of events to signal interpretation, from signals to patterns, and from patterns to broader assessments of international architecture.
- Event
- Signal
- Pattern
- Scenario
- Architecture
Three key works
New to TESPA research? Begin with these three works — they show the system at a glance before you explore the full archive below.
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Core TESPA architecture paper
TESPA: A System-Level Architecture for Organising Analytical Knowledge in International Studies
Introduces TESPA as a system-level architecture for organising, integrating and developing analytical knowledge, extending SPA’s signal-pattern logic into a structured knowledge system rather than a single technique.
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Applied SPA case study
Russia and System Disruption: A Signal-Pattern Analysis of Transformational Strategic Behaviour
Analyses Russia as an actor of system disruption, examining how its behaviour can be read not only as reactive or defensive, but as transformational behaviour aimed at altering the rules, costs and logic of the international system.
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03
Core SPA methodology
Signal-Pattern Analysis (SPA v2.1): A Functional Methodology for Strategic Behavior Analysis Under Uncertainty
Presents SPA as a functional methodology for analysing strategic behaviour under uncertainty, defining how individual signals are identified, classified and connected to broader behavioural patterns and hypothesis layers.
Four types of material
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System-level studies
Papers examining the architecture of international competition, the transformation of global order and the changing roles of key actors.
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Applied case studies
Analytical works on specific cases — Ukraine, Russia, China, Iran, the Middle East, NATO, BRICS, sanctions regimes and regional security.
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Methodological materials
Texts that explain or develop the TESPA / SPA approach: signal analysis, pattern recognition, scenario interpretation and architectural assessment.
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04
Archived analytical work
Earlier research showing the development of analytical thinking over time, forming the basis of the current framework.
Main research directions
TESPA research is organised around system-level directions rather than isolated regions or dates.
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Architecture of international competition
The contemporary system as a structured field of roles, rules, nodes and mechanisms — the contestation of hierarchy within a preserved unipolar order.
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Ukraine and the war as a systemic node
Russia’s war as a systemic test of whether the forcible change of borders can be legitimised or blocked.
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Russia and revisionist strategy
Russia’s use of war, destabilisation, sanctions adaptation and crisis bargaining to preserve or restore great-power status.
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US–China competition
The model of managed US–PRC competition: technology, containment, selective cooperation, Taiwan, the Global South and normative contestation.
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Iran, Hormuz and regional security
Iran’s nuclear capacity, missiles, proxies, sanctions adaptation and the Strait of Hormuz as bargaining assets in a shifting regional architecture.
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Western security adaptation
The transformation of the EU, NATO and Western security mechanisms under the pressure of Russia’s war against Ukraine.
Research archive
The full corpus, read as a record of analytical development. Filter by direction and format.
Direction
Format
BRICS – RUSSIA’S ATTEMPTS TO OVERCOME THE CONSEQUENCES OF ISOLATION IN THE INTERNATIONAL ARENA 2024
(published in 2024) The study shows that BRICS is used in Russian strategy not as an independent integration project, but as a tool to offset the consequences of isolatio…
STRATEGIC COMPETITION BETWEEN THE WEST AND CHINA, UKRAINE’S PLACE (2024)
The study constructs a comprehensive model of the competitive strategies of the West and China, in which Ukraine occupies not a peripheral but a structural position as a…
GLOBAL EVENTS AFFECTING THE WAR IN UKRAINE 2024
This study develops a comprehensive model of the potential transformation of the international system through the gradual consolidation of authoritarian regimes; however…
THE UKRAINIAN ISSUE AT THE UN GENERAL ASSEMBLY IN 2024. AN OVERVIEW OF KEY TRENDS
The study demonstrates that the 2024 UN General Assembly became a forum for competition not so much between peace plans as between models of the world order, in which the…
RELATIONS BETWEEN SUPERPOWERS – CHINA, RUSSIA, THE US – CONFRONTATION OR COMPETITION (2023)
The study identifies a fundamentally important shift: the international system is evolving not as a new ‘Cold War’, but as a single system with differentiated modes of in…
OF THE NATO SUMMIT (2023)
The study notes that the NATO summit in Vilnius (2023) marks a transition from the classic model of a defence alliance to a comprehensive system of security and competiti…
THE MIDDLE EAST CRISIS. ISRAEL-HAMAS 2023
of events 7 October–12 November 2023 The study demonstrates the complexity and institutionalisation of the initial three-level model, where the crisis transitions from a…
THE ‘RUSSIA–AFRICA’ SUMMIT 2023. SELECT COUNTRIES
(published in 2023) The study demonstrates that the Russian Federation’s strategy in Africa following the 2023 summit is taking on a more structured, though not systemati…
THE ‘RUSSIA–AFRICA’ SUMMIT 2023
(published in 2023) The study notes that the Russian Federation’s strategy in Africa is of a systemic-compensatory nature, where each dimension (political, economic, mili…
KEY POINTS FROM V. PUTIN’S SPEECH AT VALDAI (2023)
On 5 October 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin delivered a speech at Valdai on the topic ‘Fair Multipolarity: How to Ensure Security and Development for All’. The st…
GLOBAL LEVEL, THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION AND UKRAINE, CHANGES IN THE WORLD ORDER (2022)
The study constructs a comprehensive global-level model in which the Russian Federation’s war against Ukraine is viewed not as an isolated conflict, but as part of a syst…
How TESPA research works
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Architecture over isolated events
Research asks how events change roles, rules, mechanisms and nodes within the international system.
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Signals before conclusions
The signal, its type, function and possible pattern are identified before strategic conclusions are drawn.
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Scenarios instead of prediction
Possible trajectories and their supporting signals are identified, not categorical forecasts.
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Methodological transparency
Facts, signals, functions, patterns, hypotheses and conclusions are kept distinct to reduce overinterpretation.
Research cooperation
TESPA research is an evolving analytical layer connecting publications, methodological development, applied case studies and archived materials into one system for interpreting contemporary international competition.