System-level and applied studies based on the TESPA framework.
The TESPA research layer brings together system-level studies, applied geopolitical analysis, methodological papers and archived research. Its purpose is not only to present individual publications, but to show how analytical knowledge develops over time — from observation of events to signal interpretation, from signals to patterns, and from patterns to broader assessments of international architecture.
New to TESPA research? Begin with these three works — they show the system at a glance before you explore the full archive below.
Introduces TESPA as a system-level architecture for organising, integrating and developing analytical knowledge, extending SPA’s signal-pattern logic into a structured knowledge system rather than a single technique.
Analyses Russia as an actor of system disruption, examining how its behaviour can be read not only as reactive or defensive, but as transformational behaviour aimed at altering the rules, costs and logic of the international system.
Presents SPA as a functional methodology for analysing strategic behaviour under uncertainty, defining how individual signals are identified, classified and connected to broader behavioural patterns and hypothesis layers.
Papers examining the architecture of international competition, the transformation of global order and the changing roles of key actors.
Analytical works on specific cases — Ukraine, Russia, China, Iran, the Middle East, NATO, BRICS, sanctions regimes and regional security.
Texts that explain or develop the TESPA / SPA approach: signal analysis, pattern recognition, scenario interpretation and architectural assessment.
Earlier research showing the development of analytical thinking over time, forming the basis of the current framework.
TESPA research is organised around system-level directions rather than isolated regions or dates.
The contemporary system as a structured field of roles, rules, nodes and mechanisms — the contestation of hierarchy within a preserved unipolar order.
Russia’s war as a systemic test of whether the forcible change of borders can be legitimised or blocked.
Russia’s use of war, destabilisation, sanctions adaptation and crisis bargaining to preserve or restore great-power status.
The model of managed US–PRC competition: technology, containment, selective cooperation, Taiwan, the Global South and normative contestation.
Iran’s nuclear capacity, missiles, proxies, sanctions adaptation and the Strait of Hormuz as bargaining assets in a shifting regional architecture.
The transformation of the EU, NATO and Western security mechanisms under the pressure of Russia’s war against Ukraine.
The full corpus, read as a record of analytical development. Filter by direction and format.
(published in 2019) This study reflects the attempt by Russian strategic thinking (as of 2019) to shape a new role for the Russian Federation in the world following the c…
The study describes the logic of Russia’s ‘Gerasimov Doctrine’ as a systemic model of conflict management, in which the key feature is the combination of non-military and…
This scenario – “Russia’s proposal as a condition for negotiations: A moratorium on mutual accusations” – is currently playing out in relation to Iran’s behaviour. Russia…
Trump’s doctrine marks a qualitative shift in US foreign policy — a transition from an ideological model (globalism, ‘spreading democracy’) to hard-line national pragmati…
The study demonstrates that the ‘Trump doctrine’ is implemented at the regional level as a unified model of conflict management through regional coalitions, regardless of…
The study traces Russia and Iran’s attempt to establish an alternative security architecture in the Persian Gulf in response to the US initiative to form an anti-Iranian…
(published July 2019). The study documents a situation in which the collapse of the arms control system (the INF Treaty, with the New START Treaty in question) leads not…
Research asks how events change roles, rules, mechanisms and nodes within the international system.
The signal, its type, function and possible pattern are identified before strategic conclusions are drawn.
Possible trajectories and their supporting signals are identified, not categorical forecasts.
Facts, signals, functions, patterns, hypotheses and conclusions are kept distinct to reduce overinterpretation.
TESPA research is an evolving analytical layer connecting publications, methodological development, applied case studies and archived materials into one system for interpreting contemporary international competition.
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